Afi4wins Posted Tuesday at 01:38 AM Posted Tuesday at 01:38 AM Unofficial Final Leaderboard 1st @formerPokerpro 202 Entries 2nd @kuff 93 Entries 3rd @Flatzem888 57 Entries 4th @Maiwen 33 Entries (33 not 34) 5th @Blackjax 32 Entries 6th @Icy 26 Entries 7th @Afi4wins 26 Entries 8th @Daneski 26 Entries 9th @loceff13 24 Entries 10th @lucks_maximus 14 Entries 11th @Vezynchik 5 Entries 12th @marius1978 2 Entries Note: Positions above DO NOT indicate winning placings! Thank you to all participants for taking part! Prizes will be announced AFTER completion of the draw! Quote
lucks_maximus Posted Tuesday at 03:38 AM Posted Tuesday at 03:38 AM 1 hour ago, Afi4wins said: Unofficial Final Leaderboard 1st @formerPokerpro 202 Entries 2nd @kuff 93 Entries 3rd @Flatzem888 57 Entries 4th @Maiwen 33 Entries (33 not 34) 5th @Blackjax 32 Entries 6th @Icy 26 Entries 7th @Afi4wins 26 Entries 8th @Daneski 26 Entries 9th @loceff13 24 Entries 10th @lucks_maximus 14 Entries 11th @Vezynchik 5 Entries 12th @marius1978 2 Entries Note: Positions above DO NOT indicate winning placings! Thank you to all participants for taking part! Prizes will be announced AFTER completion of the draw! Was that a typo, or did my entries not qualify. I think I have 54. Afi4wins 1 Quote
Afi4wins Posted Tuesday at 07:30 AM Posted Tuesday at 07:30 AM @lucks_maximus OOOPS! Very sorry if yours was erroneous mate! Thanks for informing - I will recheck it to make sure. There was a glitch during the 2 hours of checking! lucks_maximus 1 Quote
Afi4wins Posted Tuesday at 07:43 AM Posted Tuesday at 07:43 AM Unofficial Final Leaderboard 1st @formerPokerpro 202 Entries 2nd @kuff 93 Entries 3rd @Flatzem888 57 Entries 4th @lucks_maximus 54 Entries (Error corrected) 5th @Maiwen 33 Entries (33 not 34) 6th @Blackjax 32 Entries 7th @Icy 26 Entries 8th @Afi4wins 26 Entries 9th @Daneski 26 Entries 10th @loceff13 24 Entries 11th @Vezynchik 5 Entries 12th @marius1978 2 Entries Note: Positions above DO NOT indicate winning placings! Thank you to all participants for taking part! Prizes will be announced AFTER completion of the draw! Icy, lucks_maximus, cocopop3011 and 1 other 4 Quote
Afi4wins Posted Tuesday at 10:31 AM Posted Tuesday at 10:31 AM 580 entries in total...what a contest eh?! A very competitive one indeed! formerPokerpro 1 Quote
loceff13 Posted Tuesday at 10:46 AM Posted Tuesday at 10:46 AM 14 minutes ago, Afi4wins said: 580 entries in total...what a contest eh?! A very competitive one indeed! Yeah, when do we draw it? Quote
Afi4wins Posted Tuesday at 10:51 AM Posted Tuesday at 10:51 AM 4 minutes ago, loceff13 said: Yeah, when do we draw it? The draw will be done by our @cocopop3011 anyday soon! loceff13 and formerPokerpro 1 1 Quote
Flatzem888 Posted Tuesday at 11:49 AM Posted Tuesday at 11:49 AM Probability of Winning a Top 10 Prize (100 EUR to 500 EUR) Member (Entries) Chance of Winning a Prize 202 entries 99.99% 93 entries 99.79% 57 entries 98.85% 54 entries 98.64% 33 entries 95.02% 32 entries 94.66% 26 entries 91.68% 26 entries 91.68% 26 entries 91.68% 24 entries 90.27% 5 entries 33.43% 2 entries 14.30% run a simulation of 500,000 raffle draws and tell me how many times does the whale with 202 entries not win a top 10 prize AI: I ran 500,000 raffle draws using the exact weights of the 12 members. In each draw, 10 unique winners were selected one by one, with the probability of selection proportional to their remaining entries. Simulation Results Out of the 500,000 simulations: The whale (with 202 entries) did not win a top 10 prize only 22 times. The whale won a prize 499,978 times. Statistical Breakdown Probability of Failure (Simulation): $0.0044\%$ Probability of Winning (Simulation): $99.9956\%$ This result aligns perfectly with the mathematical theory. Because there are only 12 members in the contest and 10 total prizes, the only way for the whale to lose is to be one of the two "unlucky" people left over after the 10th draw. Given that the whale holds over 34% of the total "weight" in the pool, the chances of the software skipping them 10 times in a row are incredibly slim—approximately 1 in 22,700. In your 500,000-draw test, it happened less than 30 times. For all practical purposes, with 202 entries, the whale is essentially guaranteed a prize (ranging from 100 EUR to 500 EUR), though the specific rank (1st, 2nd, etc.) still carries significant variance. ... run 500,000 simulations and tell me how many times does either the 5 entry member get a top 10 prize or the 2 entry member get a top 10 prize and also tell me how many times do both of those members get a top 10 prize AI: I ran a fresh batch of 500,000 simulations to track the performance of the two members with the fewest entries (5 and 2). Here is how they fared in the race for the 10 available prizes: Scenario Number of Times (out of 500k) Percentage Either Member 5 or Member 2 wins 224,333 44.87% Both Member 5 and Member 2 win 14,192 2.84% kuff, Afi4wins and formerPokerpro 1 1 1 Quote
cocopop3011 Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM Author Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM On 3/3/2026 at 7:43 AM, Afi4wins said: Unofficial Final Leaderboard 1st @formerPokerpro 202 Entries 2nd @kuff 93 Entries 3rd @Flatzem888 57 Entries 4th @lucks_maximus 54 Entries (Error corrected) 5th @Maiwen 33 Entries (33 not 34) 6th @Blackjax 32 Entries 7th @Icy 26 Entries 8th @Afi4wins 26 Entries 9th @Daneski 26 Entries 10th @loceff13 24 Entries 11th @Vezynchik 5 Entries 12th @marius1978 2 Entries Note: Positions above DO NOT indicate winning placings! Thank you to all participants for taking part! Prizes will be announced AFTER completion of the draw! Thanks Afi - completing engagement checks. loceff13 and Afi4wins 1 1 Quote
cocopop3011 Posted 4 hours ago Author Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, marius1978 said: So... who won? Afi has posted the leaderboards above Quote
kuff Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago This post was recognized by cocopop3011! kuff was awarded the badge 'Helpful' and 50 points. 43 minutes ago, cocopop3011 said: Afi has posted the leaderboards above This is one of those that you have to do the random draw. "One screenshot gets you one entry into the draw. You can submit as many screenshots as you like to have multiple entries. All entries will be added to the draw and we will choose 10 winners to share the prize pot. " Quote
cocopop3011 Posted 3 hours ago Author Posted 3 hours ago 14 minutes ago, kuff said: This is one of those that you have to do the random draw. "One screenshot gets you one entry into the draw. You can submit as many screenshots as you like to have multiple entries. All entries will be added to the draw and we will choose 10 winners to share the prize pot. " Omg yeah I wondered why you were all waiting when Afi had done the leaderboard. Good job you said I’d already recorded these results Icy and kuff 2 Quote
Icy Posted 2 hours ago Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, cocopop3011 said: Omg yeah I wondered why you were all waiting when Afi had done the leaderboard. Good job you said I’d already recorded these results Lol while we were waiting in suspense, me hiding behind a metal desk of such awaited draw results you dismissed this comp to be another ranking leaderboard Please don't ever change @cocopop3011 I hear Christmas is just around the corner. cocopop3011 1 Quote
cocopop3011 Posted 1 hour ago Author Posted 1 hour ago 58 minutes ago, Icy said: Lol while we were waiting in suspense, me hiding behind a metal desk of such awaited draw results you dismissed this comp to be another ranking leaderboard Please don't ever change @cocopop3011 I hear Christmas is just around the corner. I kept wondering why everyone was bringing it up so often honestly I’ll do the draw Monday and get invoices sent Tuesday latest sorry for the delay guys, this one is completely my fault. Quote
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