Pragmatic Play Live Casino Contest - 3,000 Prize Fund

[formerPokerpro]

#195

[formerPokerpro]

#196

[formerPokerpro]

#197

[formerPokerpro]

#198

[formerPokerpro]

#199

[formerPokerpro]

#200

[formerPokerpro]

#201

[formerPokerpro]

#202

[Afi4wins]

Unofficial Final Leaderboard

1st @formerPokerpro 202 Entries

2nd @kuff 93 Entries

3rd @Flatzem888 57 Entries

4th @Maiwen 33 Entries (33 not 34)

5th @Blackjax 32 Entries

6th @Icy 26 Entries

7th @Afi4wins 26 Entries

8th @Daneski 26 Entries

9th @loceff13 24 Entries

10th @lucks_maximus 14 Entries

11th @Vezynchik 5 Entries

12th @marius1978 2 Entries

Note: Positions above DO NOT indicate winning placings!

Thank you to all participants for taking part!

Prizes will be announced AFTER completion of the draw!

[Afi4wins]

*** CONTEST IS NOW CLOSED ***

[lucks_maximus]

1 hour ago, Afi4wins said:

Unofficial Final Leaderboard

1st @formerPokerpro 202 Entries

2nd @kuff 93 Entries

3rd @Flatzem888 57 Entries

4th @Maiwen 33 Entries (33 not 34)

5th @Blackjax 32 Entries

6th @Icy 26 Entries

7th @Afi4wins 26 Entries

8th @Daneski 26 Entries

9th @loceff13 24 Entries

10th @lucks_maximus 14 Entries

11th @Vezynchik 5 Entries

12th @marius1978 2 Entries

Note: Positions above DO NOT indicate winning placings!

Thank you to all participants for taking part!

Prizes will be announced AFTER completion of the draw!

Was that a typo, or did my entries not qualify. I think I have 54.

[Afi4wins]

@lucks_maximus OOOPS! Very sorry if yours was erroneous mate! Thanks for informing - I will recheck it to make sure. There was a glitch during the 2 hours of checking! 

[Afi4wins]

Unofficial Final Leaderboard

1st @formerPokerpro 202 Entries

2nd @kuff 93 Entries

3rd @Flatzem888 57 Entries

4th @lucks_maximus 54 Entries (Error corrected) 

5th @Maiwen 33 Entries (33 not 34)

6th @Blackjax 32 Entries

7th @Icy 26 Entries

8th @Afi4wins 26 Entries

9th @Daneski 26 Entries

10th @loceff13 24 Entries

11th @Vezynchik 5 Entries

12th @marius1978 2 Entries

Note: Positions above DO NOT indicate winning placings!

Thank you to all participants for taking part!

Prizes will be announced AFTER completion of the draw!

[loceff13]

Looks good

[Afi4wins]

580 entries in total...what a contest eh?! A very competitive one indeed!

[loceff13]

14 minutes ago, Afi4wins said:

580 entries in total...what a contest eh?! A very competitive one indeed!

Yeah, when do we draw it? 

[Afi4wins]

4 minutes ago, loceff13 said:

Yeah, when do we draw it? 

The draw will be done by our @cocopop3011 anyday soon!

[Flatzem888]

Probability of Winning a Top 10 Prize (100 EUR to 500 EUR)

Member (Entries)	Chance of Winning a Prize
202 entries	99.99%
93 entries	99.79%
57 entries	98.85%
54 entries	98.64%
33 entries	95.02%
32 entries	94.66%
26 entries	91.68%
26 entries	91.68%
26 entries	91.68%
24 entries	90.27%
5 entries	33.43%
2 entries	14.30%

 

run a simulation of 500,000 raffle draws and tell me how many times does the whale with 202 entries not win a top 10 prize

AI:

I ran 500,000 raffle draws using the exact weights of the 12 members. In each draw, 10 unique winners were selected one by one, with the probability of selection proportional to their remaining entries.

Simulation Results

Out of the 500,000 simulations:

• The whale (with 202 entries) did not win a top 10 prize only 22 times.

• The whale won a prize 499,978 times.

Statistical Breakdown

• Probability of Failure (Simulation): $0.0044\%$

• Probability of Winning (Simulation): $99.9956\%$

This result aligns perfectly with the mathematical theory. Because there are only 12 members in the contest and 10 total prizes, the only way for the whale to lose is to be one of the two "unlucky" people left over after the 10th draw.

Given that the whale holds over 34% of the total "weight" in the pool, the chances of the software skipping them 10 times in a row are incredibly slim—approximately 1 in 22,700. In your 500,000-draw test, it happened less than 30 times.

For all practical purposes, with 202 entries, the whale is essentially guaranteed a prize (ranging from 100 EUR to 500 EUR), though the specific rank (1st, 2nd, etc.) still carries significant variance.

...

 

run 500,000 simulations and tell me how many times does either the 5 entry member get a top 10 prize or the 2 entry member get a top 10 prize and also tell me how many times do both of those members get a top 10 prize

AI:

I ran a fresh batch of 500,000 simulations to track the performance of the two members with the fewest entries (5 and 2). Here is how they fared in the race for the 10 available prizes:

Scenario	Number of Times (out of 500k)	Percentage
Either Member 5 or Member 2 wins	224,333	44.87%
Both Member 5 and Member 2 win	14,192	2.84%