Premier League betting - Tips & odds

[Branchen]

The second round of the Premier League is ahead of us, and it is time to start preparing for our bets with the attempts to beat the bookmakers. We have ten games ahead of us, spread over the weekend, and there are several exciting betting opportunities.

Starting this weekend, we’ll update this thread every week with our Premier League betting tips, and we hope that you will participate in the discussion and share your own tips and betslips. There is room for all kinds of betting here, so feel free to post both short and long tips, betbuilders, accas/parleys and single bets.

The highlight of the round is the Saturday evening clash between Aston Villa and Arsenal at Villa Park. Both teams are entering the season with high hopes to compete at the very top and they both won their opening fixture last weekend. Last season’s number two in the Premier League, Arsenal, comes to Villa Park as the favourites. They played well in their season opener and are looking to challenge for the title once again.

The price on the away side, however, is a bit too low for my liking. Villa Park is a difficult place to visit, and Villa won their previous home match against Gunners with 1-0.

My best bet for this match is a player prop found at Bet365. They offer odds 2.10 on Martin Ødegaard over 0.5 shots on target. Last season the Norwegian averaged 2.2 shots per match with 0.7 on target per match and scored eight league goals. He is one of the set piece takers for Arsenal, and an absolute key player in their offensive gameplan. Villa are furthermore looking slightly worse defensively compared to last season after the loss of Brazilian international Douglas Luiz. I think Ødegaard will be able to find space and dangerous situations here.
 

The second most interesting match this round, in my humble opinion, is the fixture at Anfield Road where Liverpool takes on Brentford in Arne Slot’s homefield debut. Liverpool are firm favourites here, but Brentford have previously proved that they can cause trouble for all teams.

Once again, the price on the favourites is too low for my liking. Brentford is not a bad team, and they played well in their victory over Crystal Palace last weekend. Instead, I’m looking at a player that looks set to have a really nice season under Slot’s guidance – Diogo Jota. I recommend betting on Jota to score anytime at odds 2.00 at Bet365. The Portuguese international scored last weekend, and looked really good. Jota should start for Liverpool again, and he also scored in the home match against Brentford last season.

Which Premier League bets are you placing this weekend, and what do you think of my recommendations here? 

Let's beat the bookies together!

[Gytten1921]

I agree on the Jota bet, he will get many chances against Brentford at home. Price is not great, but there should be value in 2.00.

Personally im gonna go for goals in Brighton - Man United. Both started with a win and positive atmosphere around the clubs. I dont believe any of the teams will settle for a draw, but rather go for a win. Hoping that Minteh will be ready to start, which is expected - what a debut he had at Goodison. Despite only winning 1-0 against Fulham in the opening match Man United had an xG of 2.43. It looks like an open match. Over 3.5 goals at 2.50 at LeoVegas for me.

[Flatzem]

@Branchen what's your take on bankroll management and how do you prefer it?

[Branchen]

13 hours ago, Flatzem said:

@Branchen what's your take on bankroll management and how do you prefer it?

Personally, I have a personal spreadsheet where I track all my bets. I'm also noting down my inspirations for the bets to see which sources are profitable and which aren't. This way I've also learnt of various bad habits I have, and tried to erradicate them. 

I'm strictly sticking to value betting naturally and my staking is unit based on my overall bankroll size. Here I take into consideration both the value and the risk of the specific bet. Mostly I'm sticking to single bets. 

At the end of the day though, I think the most important thing is the discipline to not throw money away on bad bets and to avoid tilt. 

[Blackjax]

@Branchen do you take sports deposit bonuses or play with real funds only?

[Branchen]

1 hour ago, Blackjax said:

@Branchen do you take sports deposit bonuses or play with real funds only?

Generally, I avoid deposit bonuses (but it obviously depends on the terms as there are some great ones), as I like to be able to move my money around. But I try to take advantage of free bet promos and similar where there is value to gain.