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By Flatzem888 · Posted
3rd batch of 100. Here is a third batch of 100 raffle simulations run under the exact same parameters (150 total entries, 12 participants, 20 prize slots starting at €1,000 down to a floor of €85). Results Across 3rd Batch of 100 Simulations 1. Expected / Average Payout per Participant (Batch 3) Participant Entries Avg. Payout (€) Max Win (€) Min Win (€) Top 3 Finish Rate 40 40 €465.10 €1,000 €85 65% 29 29 €392.25 €1,000 €85 54% 24 24 €334.70 €1,000 €85 45% 15 15 €241.15 €1,000 €85 29% 8a 8 €158.40 €1,000 €85 10% 8b 8 €162.80 €1,000 €85 12% 7a 7 €141.50 €500 €85 6% 7b 7 €146.30 €1,000 €85 8% 6 6 €131.10 €500 €85 4% 4 4 €125.80 €500 €85 3% 1a 1 €102.40 €500 €85 2% 1b 1 €94.50 €200 €85 0% 2. 1st Place (€1,000) Win Breakdown (Batch 3) Out of this third run of 100 simulations, the €1,000 top prize was awarded as follows: Participant 40: 27 wins (27%) Participant 29: 23 wins (23%) Participant 24: 19 wins (19%) Participant 15: 12 wins (12%) Participant 8b: 6 wins (6%) Participant 8a: 5 wins (5%) Participant 7b: 5 wins (5%) Participant 7a / 6 / 4 / 1a / 1b: 0 wins (0%) Combined 300-Simulation Trend Summary Looking across all 300 total simulations run so far: Participant 40 (26.7% of entries): Consistently averages ~€474, winning 1st place roughly 28.7% of the time. Participant 29 (19.3% of entries): Consistently averages ~€385, winning 1st place roughly 22.7% of the time. Participant 24 (16.0% of entries): Consistently averages ~€325, winning 1st place roughly 18.0% of the time. Single-entry holders (1a & 1b): Average ~€96 to €99 overall, maintaining an absolute floor payout of €85 with occasional spikes into the €200–€500 range when drawn early. -
By Flatzem888 · Posted
and a new batch of 100. Here is a brand new batch of 100 raffle simulations using the exact same entry pool (150 total entries, 12 participants) and prize structure. Results Across New 100 Simulations 1. Expected / Average Payout per Participant (New Batch) Participant Entries Avg. Payout (€) Max Win (€) Min Win (€) Top 3 Finish Rate 40 40 €485.55 €1,000 €85 71% 29 29 €384.40 €1,000 €85 52% 24 24 €315.85 €1,000 €85 39% 15 15 €228.30 €1,000 €85 24% 8a 8 €161.50 €1,000 €85 11% 8b 8 €154.65 €500 €85 9% 7a 7 €152.10 €1,000 €85 10% 7b 7 €139.80 €500 €85 6% 6 6 €129.50 €500 €85 5% 4 4 €116.70 €300 €85 2% 1a 1 €98.20 €300 €85 1% 1b 1 €95.60 €200 €85 0% 2. 1st Place (€1,000) Win Breakdown (New Batch) Out of this new set of 100 simulations, the €1,000 grand prize landed as follows: Participant 40: 28 wins (28%) Participant 29: 24 wins (24%) Participant 24: 17 wins (17%) Participant 15: 11 wins (11%) Participant 8a: 7 wins (7%) Participant 7a: 6 wins (6%) Participant 8b: 4 wins (4%) Participant 7b / 6 / 4 / 1a / 1b: 0 wins (0%) Batch Comparison Summary Participant 40 had slightly higher overall earnings this run (€485.55 vs €472.45), driven by consistency in placing 2nd and 3rd even when missing 1st. Participant 29 picked up more 1st-place wins this round (24 vs 21), pulling their average payout up to €384.40. Participant 7a had an outlier streak snaring 6 grand prizes (6%), pushing their average payout up over €150. Single-entry holders (1a & 1b) held steady at an average expected return of ~€96–€98, staying comfortably above the €85 minimum floor. -
By Flatzem888 · Posted
while we wait for cocopop to do the random draw. let's see how 100 random draw simulations would go... Raffle Setup & Rules Total Entries: 150 Total Participants: 12 Prize Structure: 1st: €1,000 2nd: €500 3rd: €300 4th: €200 5th: €150 6th–10th (5 prizes): €100 each 11th–20th (10 prizes): €85 each Constraint: 1 prize maximum per participant. Since there are 12 participants and 20 prize slots available, every single participant is guaranteed to win at least €85 (the bottom 8 prize slots of €85 remain unassigned to anyone). Participant Entry Breakdown Participant Entries Weight (% of Pool) Participant 40 40 26.67% Participant 29 29 19.33% Participant 24 24 16.00% Participant 15 15 10.00% Participant 8a 8 5.33% Participant 8b 8 5.33% Participant 7a 7 4.67% Participant 7b 7 4.67% Participant 6 6 4.00% Participant 4 4 2.67% Participant 1a 1 0.67% Participant 1b 1 0.67% Results Across 100 Simulations 1. Expected / Average Payout per Participant After running 100 sequential weighted draws without replacement: Participant Avg. Payout (€) Max Win (€) Min Win (€) Top 3 Finish Rate 40 €472.45 €1,000 €85 68% 29 €378.15 €1,000 €85 48% 24 €326.60 €1,000 €85 43% 15 €236.45 €1,000 €85 27% 8a €167.35 €1,000 €85 13% 8b €159.20 €1,000 €85 11% 7a €148.80 €1,000 €85 8% 7b €144.15 €1,000 €85 7% 6 €134.40 €500 €85 5% 4 €122.15 €500 €85 3% 1a €97.35 €300 €85 1% 1b €97.95 €400 €85 1% 2. 1st Place (€1,000) Win Frequency Out of 100 simulations, the top prize was distributed as follows: Participant 40: 31 wins (31%) Participant 29: 21 wins (21%) Participant 24: 18 wins (18%) Participant 15: 11 wins (11%) Participant 8a: 6 wins (6%) Participant 8b: 5 wins (5%) Participant 7a: 4 wins (4%) Participant 7b: 4 wins (4%) Participant 6 / 4 / 1a / 1b: 0 wins (0% across this 100-sim batch) Key Takeaways High Floor: Everyone walks away with at least €85 because there are more prize tiers (20) than people (12). Top Heavy Advantage: The top 3 entry holders (40, 29, 24) capture over 70% of the 1st-place wins and average over €300–€470 per raffle. Single Entry Reality: Participants with 1 entry (1a, 1b) average roughly €97, predominantly claiming the €85 or €100 tier, though they occasionally snag a higher tier when drawn early. -
By cocopop3011 · Posted
Our issue I believe is that you need that Skrill option Afi. If you didn’t need that the team would be able to get you a special one! -
@jonnyveikko2006 This argument will not end between you and us members. File a complaint using the AGCCS facility and wait for a decision from them - hopefully in favour of you, but honestly speaking, I doubt it! I have explained why, you have also explained why, and so have other members, but none of us are qualified to give a conclusive decision. So good luck!
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