Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers

[JohhnySack]

Hi folks 

 

I was asked by the forum queen Luciana to write something on the forum and I couldn`t find it in my heart to let her down. Even though she is a lovely girl she doesn`t know s**t about either poker or sportsbetting so I agreed to help her out

 

First of I`ve been playing poker/sportsbetting for a living( in that order) for about 15 years and would gladly help you guys out if you have any questions about either of the two.  Been reading a few of the latest treads on the forum but since I can`t seem to get a clear picture of what you want to know exactly I think it would be easier to just start over. 

 

Would also try to post sportbets when certain bookmakers/casinos are out of line or quite simple if I find sportsbets to be of any value.  If that would be of any interest to you guys at all

 

So in other words bring on questions( since I have no clue what you already know and what you want to know more about) and I`ll answer them as best I can!

[Toiletseat]

Very nice to see a professional punter/tipster here at AG. A warm welcome   . I have to say I am very excited and hope to learn something from you. 

You wrote something about sportbets of any value. My question is: how do you determine if a bet has value? Wich criteria you use? Personally I look at h2h statistics, trying to determine a team's chance to win or loose by past results, and then search the bookies if they have their odds to high. Unfortunatelly for me this doesn't work. It brings me nowhere. Got any advice for me? Thanks in advance 

[Luciana]

Welcome Johhny! 

 

Can't wait to see more activity over here!

I'm pretty convinced we'll all learn something new and interesting. 

 

The reason Johhny joined us is that I noticed a significant number of poker related questions and we don't have anyone here, who can professionally answer.

It's time to change that

[cocopop3011]

Welcome to the forum Johnny, hope our members have lots of questions for you! I'm afraid I don't play poker or sports betting so no questions from me right now...but never say never!

[Awena]

Welcome to AG Johhny and I was thinking that we really need this topic and I believe we have the right person  now. 

 

Cheers and lets make it live!

 

[ValDes]

 

Hi folks 

 

I was asked by the forum queen Luciana to write something on the forum and I couldn`t find it in my heart to let her down. Even though she is a lovely girl she doesn`t know s**t about either poker or sportsbetting so I agreed to help her out

 

First of I`ve been playing poker/sportsbetting for a living( in that order) for about 15 years and would gladly help you guys out if you have any questions about either of the two.  Been reading a few of the latest treads on the forum but since I can`t seem to get a clear picture of what you want to know exactly I think it would be easier to just start over. 

 

Would also try to post sportbets when certain bookmakers/casinos are out of line or quite simple if I find sportsbets to be of any value.  If that would be of any interest to you guys at all

 

So in other words bring on questions( since I have no clue what you already know and what you want to know more about) and I`ll answer them as best I can!

 

 

Hello and welcome to the AskGamblers forum. 

 

Actually we already have some rather experienced fellow members whom we could rely when to comes to sports betting, such as ToiletSeat and Paquito76 to name a few. However, having someone who's doing that for a living for so many years is definitely a great news and I'm really happy to meet you.

 

By the way, where and how do you know our forum heroine Luciana?  

[paquito76]

Welcome JohhnySack! 

 

I agree with ValDes, it's totally different story if someone does it for a living

and it's always nice if a professional and experienced player is around and 

willing to help if needed. 

[JohhnySack]

Thanks for your kind welcomes boys and girls!

 

Thanks for your kind welcomes boys and girls!

 

I`m afraid my answers might come at strange times since my day rhythm is pretty shabby at best

 

Toiletseat:

 

Let`s use football as a example since I assume that`s what you are refering to.

 

It`s very hard to determine if a bet offers value or not. More often than not you need as much or more knowledge/insight about a match than the bookmakers themself deteminating this and that`s easier said than done.

Personaly if I have been paying close attention to a league I don`t check the market odds before I make up my own mind where about I think the betting odds should be. If the market differ alot from this I go further. 

 

H2H history doesn`t quite give the whole picture when it comes to football since the matches are so far between (twice a year) and teams/matchups changes alot during one season to the other. Watching most the matches in a league, paying attention to teams form, looking out for injuries and trying to picture how teams stands to each other would  be more important I`m afraid. Sadly it`s a ***** of a lot of work watching all matches in a league  and more often than not it seems like a full time job..

 

 

[JohhnySack]

But if you want to try to beat the bookies on your own I would suggest you focus on the smaller leagues. The bigger the league the more bets will be played on it. The more money the more on guard bookmakers will have to be. For example players would really hurt a bookmaker if they kept on giving the wrong odds on the higher levels such as Premier League, La Liga etc eventhough it happends from time to time

[JohhnySack]

Because of the competition more and more bookmakers have to offers odds on lower leagues. This isn`t something they want to do but to keep up in a growing demanding market operators offers players more and more betting options. This is good news for the players since the bookmakers have alot more work in front of them every week. To put it all in a very black and white texture: Even most grandmothers would know if Messi was about to lose out on the world cup final because of a injury.

[JohhnySack]

But if the topscorer in some Iceland 2 division team broke his leg trying to ride his bike pissed drunk home from the pub the day before matchday, that could happen without any bookmakers even knowing it ever happend. 

 

Except from trying to beat the market all by yourself, comparing bookmakers is a pretty safe ( and much easier) way of finding decent bets. Lets say that you have for example 10 big bookmakers who have about 97% payback on a match. If 9/10 of them says that your dear Holland are gonna beat Serbia 3/4 times at home and the last one says they will only win the match 2/4 you are pretty much always"ahead" before trying to double your money at the last one. 

 

ValDes:

 

That`s questions for another day and a completley different topic

[JohhnySack]

Sorry for so many posts in a row, that was the only way to post the whole of my reply, since I kept receiving a message that a cannot post links before being a registered member for 7 days, although my text didn't include any link..

[Toiletseat]

Wow     , Thanks Johhny. Now this is what I call a detailed answer Thank you thank you thank you    Your tactics / point of view looks a bit like high regarded and passionate forummember Paquito. Today's form etc etc is much more important than what happened in the past and I understand that. Only problem is I could not find a way to calculate a team's actual situation into odds. I must say, you absolutely have a point about the lower league betting. I always thought bookies use a advanced softwareprogram to calculate odds but indeed: With all these lower / minor leagues now available for betting, for bookies it must be a ***** of a job to offer the right odds when you have to regard all aspects like injuries etc. . You are only a few days AG member now, but allready I love you   I'll go to work with your advice and tips, for me it is time for a new fresh approach. Thanks again 

[JohhnySack]

Cheers, glad to hear that!

 

"calculate a team's actual situation into odds". Sory to say there are no shortcuts on the way doing so.

 

It`s a very complex worktask to put "accurate" probabilities on a match/event. Even more so when it comes to most teamsports with a 3 way outcome.( Home-Draw-Away).

 

But anyway the math is the same no matter how many possible outcomes a event has.

 

If you make a bet with a friend who of you will run fastest for example and you think you gonna outrun him 70 out of a 100 times=70%

your odds: 100/70=1,43

his odds: 100/30=3,33

 

Given that you have to run till one of you win and draw is not an option

 

If you have the odds but want to know the procent: 100/odds=%

[Toiletseat]

Thanks Johhny for explaining further. I really think (I allready did by the way) we all can learn a lot from you. I am really looking forward on your picks. 

My pick for today would be on a tennismatch. WTA Madrid Kuznetsova vs Safarova. I bet Kuznetsova to win, on current odds of 2.38 Unibet. I am sure there are better odds, but Unibet is the only bookie I have funded at the moment.

[ValDes]

...

...

ValDes:

 

That`s questions for another day and a completley different topic

 

 

Well, I will not forget about it though...

 

 

Sorry for so many posts in a row, that was the only way to post the whole of my reply, since I kept receiving a message that a cannot post links before being a registered member for 7 days, although my text didn't include any link..

 

This should be fixed now. Please try again and send me a PM if the problem still persists. 

[paquito76]

Thanks Johhny for explaining further. I really think (I allready did by the way) we all can learn a lot from you. I am really looking forward on your picks. 

My pick for today would be on a tennismatch. WTA Madrid Kuznetsova vs Safarova. I bet Kuznetsova to win, on current odds of 2.38 Unibet. I am sure there are better odds, but Unibet is the only bookie I have funded at the moment.

 

It wasn't an easy game but all good if the end is good! 

 

All of my respect goes to you if you dare to bet on women tennis matches! 

In the past I have had such terrible memories with women's tennis tickets so

lately I just avoid them if I could.

[paquito76]

 

But if you want to try to beat the bookies on your own I would suggest you focus on the smaller leagues. The bigger the league the more bets will be played on it. The more money the more on guard bookmakers will have to be. For example players would really hurt a bookmaker if they kept on giving the wrong odds on the higher levels such as Premier League, La Liga etc eventhough it happends from time to time

 

 

I see your point on lower leagues but personally I don't really like to bet on them. First, not just the bookies but the players are also in trouble finding up to date infos about them (of course if someone has inside information, well, it's a big advantage) and based on my experiences there are way more oddities and strange outcomes (directly not use the word of 'cheats') at lower levels than top leagues and this increased unpredictability doesn't work in players favour.

[Awena]

Good evening sport bets people.Well I just heard, aham, it was this morning there was football match Bayern / Barcelona last night, too many injured players on Bayern side and Barcelona won. Now we have upcoming match Barcelona / Bayern and it is more like... Barcelona will get that match and win .. ?

[Awena]

Since my poker friend got married I don't call him so often but we have this great topic live and I will jump in anytime when I have something to say and I hope sooner or later you will realised that this guy actually know what does he talking about. 

 

Is there some more upcoming matches that we could play ?

[JohhnySack]

paquito76:

 

Yes it`s harder to get the facts rights when it comes to the lower leagues around the world. Hence the expression " on your own" cos pretty much nobody cares whats going on in smaller leagues in most countries. If if someone would be ambitious/insane enough to read up all there is to know about a league just for betting purposes, I would on the other hand recomend learning about a league that very few other people know anything about.

 

Players are seldom professionals and their perfermances varies more than the elite of course. Media are not there to arrest you either so most matches are easily forgotten. But strange outcomes/ unpredictable matches are more often than not a good thing, in my humble opinion. Depending if your betting the favorites or the underdogs of course..

 

Awena: I`m not too sure it`s a good idea to go against the Germans this week to be honest. Except from that I have no idea what yourè talking about

[SlotCop]

Hey Johnny, it seems that you're beyond an expert with poker and sports betting. You're tactics really show that you've been doing this for a living. I've once gave the incorrect odds in La Liga and it sure had hurt a bookmaker, now I've been focusing on leagues that are smaller.

[cocopop3011]

Hey Johnny, it seems that you're beyond an expert with poker and sports betting. You're tactics really show that you've been doing this for a living. I've once gave the incorrect odds in La Liga and it sure had hurt a bookmaker, now I've been focusing on leagues that are smaller.

 

Hello SlotCop and welcome to the forum. So your a sports fan then?

[SlotCop]

Hello SlotCop and welcome to the forum. So your a sports fan then?

I'm an avid sports fan and I think that my love for sports makes me a weak bettor. There were times wherein I would bet for the team I love rather than the "better team". That's one obvious weakness of mine and probably of other sports bettor too. I think this is where intellectual strategy comes in.

[cocopop3011]

I'm an avid sports fan and I think that my love for sports makes me a weak bettor. There were times wherein I would bet for the team I love rather than the "better team". That's one obvious weakness of mine and probably of other sports bettor too. I think this is where intellectual strategy comes in.

 

Haha! I don't think you're alone there, I'm sure many sports fans do the same thing.