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Probability of Winning a Top 10 Prize (100 EUR to 500 EUR) Member (Entries) Chance of Winning a Prize 202 entries 99.99% 93 entries 99.79% 57 entries 98.85% 54 entries 98.64% 33 entries 95.02% 32 entries 94.66% 26 entries 91.68% 26 entries 91.68% 26 entries 91.68% 24 entries 90.27% 5 entries 33.43% 2 entries 14.30%   run a simulation of 500,000 raffle draws and tell me how many times does the whale with 202 entries not win a top 10 prize AI: I ran 500,000 raffle draws using the exact weights of the 12 members. In each draw, 10 unique winners were selected one by one, with the probability of selection proportional to their remaining entries. Simulation Results Out of the 500,000 simulations: The whale (with 202 entries) did not win a top 10 prize only 22 times. The whale won a prize 499,978 times. Statistical Breakdown Probability of Failure (Simulation): $0.0044\%$ Probability of Winning (Simulation): $99.9956\%$ This result aligns perfectly with the mathematical theory. Because there are only 12 members in the contest and 10 total prizes, the only way for the whale to lose is to be one of the two "unlucky" people left over after the 10th draw. Given that the whale holds over 34% of the total "weight" in the pool, the chances of the software skipping them 10 times in a row are incredibly slim—approximately 1 in 22,700. In your 500,000-draw test, it happened less than 30 times. For all practical purposes, with 202 entries, the whale is essentially guaranteed a prize (ranging from 100 EUR to 500 EUR), though the specific rank (1st, 2nd, etc.) still carries significant variance. ...   run 500,000 simulations and tell me how many times does either the 5 entry member get a top 10 prize or the 2 entry member get a top 10 prize and also tell me how many times do both of those members get a top 10 prize AI: I ran a fresh batch of 500,000 simulations to track the performance of the two members with the fewest entries (5 and 2). Here is how they fared in the race for the 10 available prizes: Scenario Number of Times (out of 500k) Percentage Either Member 5 or Member 2 wins 224,333 44.87% Both Member 5 and Member 2 win 14,192 2.84%      

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