TomLinnane Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Online Blackjack is generally run by gaming commissions, and require that the payout percentages usually fall under the 97% or higher percentile rate. After running 1000+ hands through an excel sheet, I found some staggering information which I am going to spread on here to hopefully help players like myself understand when and when not to play. First off, I want to say that I am a very good blackjack player. I understand mathematics, betting trends, and often most importantly, when and when not to stay at a table. Even with knowledge, online seems to always be a completely different animal to tackle when it comes to blackjack. After running 1000 hands of history, my number one suggestion to you is, know your payout percentage rate. This number is absolutely key when determining how successful you can be online. Generally, online casinos want a player to be 97% or higher. If you are a person maintaining 97%, you are most likely actually losing money online. The most common trend I noticed after depositing on 3 different sites, is that each time I sat down at a blackjack table, my payout percentage rate would be an incredible 140%+ from the first 50+ hands. Even if you only doubled your money, I would honestly recommend cashing out as soon as possible, and I will explain why. Online Blackjack more specifically targets these payout percentages, this does not mean the hands are rigged because they are not, but it does mean that depending on that % you have, can have a huge impact on the amount of hands you will win, or the amount of money you will lose to even out the percentile. After hitting my high of 152%, I continued to play mainly for research purposes. I then went on the worst run online I probably ever had. I lost 79 hands out of 100, which is terrible. I went from a nice hefty profit, to about even money. In the next 100 hands, I didn't even get past 56 hands. My 21's would push, my 20's would lose. My double downs would always miss. Everything was literally falling apart. Mathematically winning hands were getting crushed against the dealer. By the time I spent my last dollar, I realized that my payout % ended up being 97.56%. Which falls very well in line the gaming commissions rules. Even with statistics showing that a player lost 128 hands to 156, it doesn't matter. The system only cares about a players payout percentage. It does not matter how they monitor it, or how the system controls it, but they will make sure that if you don't walk away from being an above average player, you will ultimately control your own demise. You can make some good money with online blackjack, but if you are a player that likes to play for hours, and manage your bankroll, please be wary of payout percentage rates. It literally will control the rise and fall of your deposit. If you don't believe me, try it out for yourself with a 500-1000 hand excel sheet. Try and monitor your winning percentages, and see where you end up. Thanks for reading guys! Raptordinos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raptordinos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hello TomLinnane: I can see You're serious about the maths when gambling and I really like that. I love Blackjack too and add bacarat and roulette to my favorite games (and better if It's with live dealer). I can see I win more in some casinos than in others. I think maybe to extract some "10 points cards" from the normal 8 decks can affect the development of the game in favour of house and in another casinos cards are no shuffled in front of You and when decks are finished (deemed 50% +/-) are taken away and replaced and if You think about it a supossed control on initial order could give a pair of hands to dealers. I´m just speculating, but it would be useful if You can list such casinos that offer the best blackjack payout average (in your opinion). I have no doubt so many people will find this useful and I´m the first one. Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomLinnane Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hello Rapt, I don't necessarily think its a coincidence, but the sketchier the casino, the higher payout percentage I have found to receive. Cool Cat and the providing affiliates, have given me a $100 free chip. I noticed that amongst sites like these, I was easily able to obtain the 60x play through and rollover required for a withdrawal. The issue and the chance you take with those sites, is that it takes a VERY long time to withdraw your money. I am still waiting on a $200 withdrawal I received from a rollover, and I do believe in time I will get it, but it will take a very long time with hassle to obtain that money. Sites that I truly respect like Bovada, Full Flush Poker, and Carbon, are amongst the more recommendable US sites, but I find the percentages to be much more strict concerning the 97-98% payout percentages. My numbers amongst Bovada, Carbon, and Full Flush, were actually all ironically in the 97.50% range. I don't have one favorite site in particular at this moment, but after some more research this upcoming week, I will gladly share it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValDes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hi TomLinnane and welcome to the AskGamblers forum! Although I am not a huge Blackjack fan and therefore not the most passionate BJ player, I found your theory interesting, but a bit naive at the same time. You should know that most gambling vendors calculate and encode their overall RTP values not in a set of thousand spins, but in a set of millions, sometimes even tens of millions! Have that in mind next time you decide to state some general conclusions. Irine 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cocopop3011 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Online Blackjack is generally run by gaming commissions, and require that the payout percentages usually fall under the 97% or higher percentile rate. After running 1000+ hands through an excel sheet, I found some staggering information which I am going to spread on here to hopefully help players like myself understand when and when not to play. First off, I want to say that I am a very good blackjack player. I understand mathematics, betting trends, and often most importantly, when and when not to stay at a table. Even with knowledge, online seems to always be a completely different animal to tackle when it comes to blackjack. After running 1000 hands of history, my number one suggestion to you is, know your payout percentage rate. This number is absolutely key when determining how successful you can be online. Generally, online casinos want a player to be 97% or higher. If you are a person maintaining 97%, you are most likely actually losing money online. The most common trend I noticed after depositing on 3 different sites, is that each time I sat down at a blackjack table, my payout percentage rate would be an incredible 140%+ from the first 50+ hands. Even if you only doubled your money, I would honestly recommend cashing out as soon as possible, and I will explain why. Online Blackjack more specifically targets these payout percentages, this does not mean the hands are rigged because they are not, but it does mean that depending on that % you have, can have a huge impact on the amount of hands you will win, or the amount of money you will lose to even out the percentile. After hitting my high of 152%, I continued to play mainly for research purposes. I then went on the worst run online I probably ever had. I lost 79 hands out of 100, which is terrible. I went from a nice hefty profit, to about even money. In the next 100 hands, I didn't even get past 56 hands. My 21's would push, my 20's would lose. My double downs would always miss. Everything was literally falling apart. Mathematically winning hands were getting crushed against the dealer. By the time I spent my last dollar, I realized that my payout % ended up being 97.56%. Which falls very well in line the gaming commissions rules. Even with statistics showing that a player lost 128 hands to 156, it doesn't matter. The system only cares about a players payout percentage. It does not matter how they monitor it, or how the system controls it, but they will make sure that if you don't walk away from being an above average player, you will ultimately control your own demise. You can make some good money with online blackjack, but if you are a player that likes to play for hours, and manage your bankroll, please be wary of payout percentage rates. It literally will control the rise and fall of your deposit. If you don't believe me, try it out for yourself with a 500-1000 hand excel sheet. Try and monitor your winning percentages, and see where you end up. Thanks for reading guys! Hi there, I'm afraid this is way over my head, i just thought I'd come and introduce myself and welcome you into the AG family! Hope to see more from you soon Luciana 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomLinnane Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 I appreciate the feedback everyone! I wanted to point out something rather interesting just as a side note. I won't mention the site, but it is a recommendable poker site where this story happened from. I haven't posted the actual statistics on here because it would create an extraordinarily long thread that I wasn't trying to do. However, I sent basically this same story to the site I was playing on, implementing the numbers, and to trying to at least show what was happening, and that it could possibly be picked up by above average blackjack players. The poker site upon the review, refunded all my transactions, and said that they would like me to continue my play elsewhere, and deactivated my account. I am very thankful and actually surprised I was able to get my transactions refunded, but it did shock me that the information I was able to provide showed some type of odd consistency which implemented this to happen. As I mentioned in the original post, I do not by any means believe that these systems are rigged. It is however 100% known that these systems are randomized every single hand, and follow a guideline of winning percentages. The issue I have always had with randomized systems, is that it often affects my "live" play when I actually go to a casino. The hands that you will receive online, as well as the dealers hands, will seem slightly odd because of the randomized system. My best suggestion to both casino and online players, is to make sure you understand the differences of both so you don't end up making poor choices. ValDes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValDes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This time I'm 100% agree with you. Still quite interested to know what was the reason for the operator to refund and close your account though?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomLinnane Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 Thank you everyone for the feedback. As always, I appreciate opinions, questions, and anything you may want to say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luciana Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hi there, I'm afraid this is way over my head, i just thought I'd come and introduce myself and welcome you into the AG family! Hope to see more from you soon Hahaha, this Sharon is just nothing less than a walking legend :D cocopop3011 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValDes Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hahaha, this Sharon is just nothing less than a walking legend :D Yeah, that's pretty obvious already. But I was kind of curious to hear your opinion about Tom's comments on your beloved blackjack? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luciana Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hahaha, I'm not that pro and I don't have time to read texts huge as Tom's, at the moment..honestly And I see lots of numbers and percents, which give me a headache in advance! I'll be back to examine it closely cocopop3011 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValDes Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'll remind you about that, you could be one hundred per cent sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luciana Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I am cocopop3011 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irine Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 This is interesting to read. Valdes has a point BJ algorithm was made to be strong and to earn not to lose make profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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